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Talk:2017 Spring Event/@comment-31681641-20170406191524
I have been reading the conversations or rather mathematical debates for a while now, and can just shake my head. This is not gambling and you can't use the law of probability, odds and/or theory to try and figure out your chances of winning. Don't complicate things! It simply is: 25% change with gold chest and 7% with bronze chest, so; 1 out of every 4 attempts with the gold chest should be successful, and 1 out of every 14 attempts with the bronze chest should be successful. Obviously sometimes a litttle more and sometimes a little less. Your maths may be correct Liam, but this is not maths, it is a game, and not a game made on mathematical rules. Now you are going to answer me that where there are stated percentages, there should also be assumed probabilities. Bla bla bla. Stop playing on mathematical rules alone and try and use a little LOGIC as well. I do have a question for you though LiamWH: When you did not win the daily specials with your many many bronze chest attempts, how many useless military drummers and color guards etc did you end up with? Paying for something you don't need, is actually wasted money/lanterns, is it not? Sure you may get the daily specials eventually, but what useless stuff are you left with? You don't believe what other people report here, in fact you call them lyers. You would rather believe what you worked out on a piece of paper. Look beyond calculations or you won't even complete a full set. So here are my results, which you can call lies as well, I don't care. By only using the GOLD chests I have a full set, plus: over 6000 medals, 2x One Story Pagodas, 5 blueprints, 2x 200 lanterns, a Bazaar. Medals are always welcome in FOE, the Pagoda is comparable and actually better than any coin rewarding GB and takes less space, and the Bazaar is a great building to have. So while I got the daily specials I was after, I also got great second prizes. On the other side of the coin; the bronze alternative prizes are just plain crap. Yes obviously you can win the daily specials with the bronze or the silver chests, but your chances are very slim, and you have to be very very lucky, 7% lucky to be precise. SO, what have you got to show for all your plentyfull bronze chests Liam? Show facts not just theory. In theory I can be the President, but in reality; I don't think so. There are many people that report similar successes with the gold chests, which you seem to ignore. You can't try to work this game out with maths alone, use some logic, play the gold chests only and you will be successful. The gold chest is the only logical choice. Play the way you like, but I know that at the end of the event, I will have way better rewards than you, unless of course you consider the color guard as a good reward. Ohh, no need to answer me, it doesn't matter to me what you want to counter, your tactics is flawed; fullstop.